Climate change and Alaska

I wrote last September after flooding had badly affected us at The Larches that for many round the world it can be far worse, bringing loss of home, possessions, livelihood, even life.

At the time I hadn’t thought that we would be seeing natural disasters so soon – disasters that can be directly linked to climate change and flooding. In October however Hurricane Sandy prevented our return from America for four days and caused millions of dollars of damage on the US eastern seaboard.

Now this last week a report in The Guardian (May 16th) by Suzanne Goldenberg has shown dramatically how small communities in Alaska are being affected by warmer temperatures and the melting of the permafrost, which until now has provided a firm enough base for housing and other facilities.

Goldenberg’s three part report looks at Newtok on the west coast of Alaska and some 400 miles from Anchorage. As Spring approaches, the adjacent River Ninglick carries off huge chunks of land as its melt waters race towards the Bering Sea.

The nearest doctor and hospital is 100 miles away and by 2017 the US Army Corps of Engineers estimate that the highest point of the existing township, now 20 feet above the river, will be underwater.

Destruction of up to 180 indigenous communities in Alaska’s low lying areas, adjoining rivers and coastal areas, is almost certain. Yet US officials indicate that there will be no additional federal monies available to meet the costs of creating new settlements for these displaced people, which could cost in the case of Newtok up to $130 million.

Could the Newtok community become the first of “America’s Climate change refugees”? asks Goldenberg. An initial start in tackling the issues in Newtok has been made by identifying an area nearby where volcanic rock will provide a solid base for construction of housing and facilities.

But if the Newtok community is to survive intact, it will have to raise the money and do much of the building work itself – no mean task for a group of just 350 people.

Rain forecast: stay inside?

You know the scene, only too well these days! You’re inside the house and have finished off a job, sent off some emails and now want to go to the shops, stretch your legs in the park, go biking or have a short fell run up Cat Bells above Derwentwater.

You put your hand out of the window. Is it spitting or just my imagination? You go outside and see a lot of clouds. Which way is the wind blowing? Will it pass over? Do I need a cag? How long have I got before the rain starts? The usual questions.

Well this last week, while we’ve been on the US west coast in Seattle, we’ve been introduced to the answer! It’s a new app for iPhones and iPads called Dark Sky. The design and a display are shown in the illustration opposite.

We were out in the city’s Discovery Park last weekend, with an overcast sky. Rounding a bluff as we reached the shoreline of Puget Sound, I asked my daughter ‘Is it going to rain?’ Pulling out her iPhone, she said ‘Hang on a moment. Yes I have it now. It’s saying could be sprinkling coming’. Thirty seconds later we felt the first drops! Amazing and it wasn’t the only time this happened.

The app uses GPS information for your position and deploys weather radar data and some sophisticated software and algorythms to predict type, extent and timing of the rainfall. It does not attempt to predict weather over more than one hour in advance. It is not clear how accurate it will be in very mountainous terrain where weather patterns can change very fast and unpredictably. The app was developed by a small company, kickstarter.com with financial backing from 1200 people. A detailed account and visualisation by the developers of what the app does can be found here.

It’s a must have app, but there is a snag for anyone outside the USA. It depends upon the developers getting the weather radar data, which can involve detailed and legal issues with individual countries. They want to extend the app for wider use and invite people to indicate an interest in getting the Dark Sky app in their own country.

Why not sign in and indicate your interest and country – and while you are doing that, just send me a note in our ‘Comments’ section (below) that you have done this!

Gas, quotas & golden sunbeams

I was up again last week in Cumbria, discussing with our Halifax insurers our plans for the restoration work at The Larches. Getting the pieces In place and the contractors appointed has been a slow process, as we discussed in last month’s blog post.

Despite some problems we’re optimistic that in the end we will have with the insurers’ help, a re-fit that brings the cottage back to its pre-loss position, with a few changes and improvements like better insulation made in the process.

It has taken us curiously six weeks to get the gas supply reconnected. The problem? Well the old meter was swept away and the supply capped to prevent an explosion. To get a new one I’ve had to contact the National Grid, Northern Gas Networks, EDF our energy supplier and finally our Gas Safe engineer – all of them more than once. Each knows only a part of the story.

The holy grail I found was to get my hands on the MPRN. “That’s the Meter Point Reference Number, dear”, Mary, a kindly assistant in Leeds told me. A phone call later and I was clear at last I thought. But not so easy. Another hurdle awaited.

I couldn’t get the relay and meter box installed until the old meter had been removed from the network. But it’s long gone, lost in a skip and probably now part of Cumbria’s landfill quota I thought, so “why should this delay us?” I asked.

It seemed a good question and sense arrived at last. As I reached Cockermouth last week the phone rang. “The meter’s now in the box, sir. You’ve just got to link up the final three metres to the boiler.” Sounds a doddle, but as Paul, our Gas Safe engineer explained, “rain and flux don’t mix well. It’s got to be dry before I can complete this.” Fortunately the sun has shone this week. The connection’s been made and we now have some hot radiators.

I had made an early start to get up to Cockermouth for the meeting with the insurers and thought ‘just my luck’, as the rain pounded the M6 carriageway and low cloud obscured the hills on my journey west towards Keswick on the A66.

But as locals know well, you can never tell what the weather will bring you for the rest of the day. As I headed off east towards Penrith at the end of the day, I looked up at the Skiddaw range. What a delight! The evening sun was now breaking through (See photo below) leaving a golden glow on those south west facing slopes up to Carlside and Carsleddam.

A good omen I thought for the repairs programme and hopefully we will soon be able to get the house habitable again. We should be up again on Skiddaw’s slopes by Christmas.

The vengeance of the skies

In our last two posts in June we described the warm weather up in Cumbria and pitied the south for its rain. Far better to spend your summer holidays in the Lake District. Now this cocky spirit of ours has taken a battering!

Just three months ago The Larches suffered a big blow. After 24 hours of almost continuous rain – with over 9 cms falling on Skiddaw – a flood of water, debris, trees and stones descended through the forest above the house, as this video shows.

Racing across the fellside garden, it deposited large quantities of silt and rocks in the passage at the back of the house and then continued its path of destruction onto the road outside. Debris and water poured down through the village, leaving much to be cleared. This was without precedent in Thornthwaite.

When we arrived back at the house the next day after attending a wedding in Somerset, a scene of devastation met us. A wide swathe of the garden had been stripped of vegetation and outside piles of mud and rock lined the road. An ancient holly tree had been uprooted from the bank and swept down the slope and into the back bedroom, smashing the window.

A large 16 metres larch tree had come to a final halt at our 1st floor back door, destroying the three flights of steps which had rested on the platform there. At the top of the garden the belvedere and deck (see above), protected by a rock bluff above had narrowly missed the onslaught, but the steps and gangway leading to them had taken the full brunt and were hanging in the air connected only by the stainless steel protection rigging.

Inside the house the back bedroom was covered with a metre of mud with the furniture and bedding unusable, while the two front bedrooms had suffered from some water damage. Everything had to be removed for safety to the first floor and all floorboards lifted, but fortunately there has been no structural damage to the house.

We are now pleased to say that clearing the debris inside and outside has been completed, with 12 large skip loads removed and the house has been successfully dried out by 24 hour use of dehumidifiers. A schedule of repair works to be carried out has been agreed with the insurers and invitations to tender were sent out to contractors. Our aim is to complete the restoration works by early 2013. Things are now looking much better, with the ground cleared and new vegetation growing up on the fellside, as the photo opposite shows. The back steps however have still to be built and the window replaced for the back bedroom.

It has been sad to see so much damage caused, but we’ve received much help and support from people in the village and friends. Fortunately there was no one staying in the house at the time.

We have learnt from this experience just how devastating flooding can be – for many round the world it can bring loss of home, possessions, livelihood and even life. For us the loss is only temporary and we look forward to The Larches being habitable again in just a few months time for friends and visitors. Then we will celebrate with a party!

Pity the South!

The sun may not be shining every day here in Keswick, but there’s been little rain and plenty of opportunity for us to be working on the garden and getting out on the hills. Today we had a beautiful Lakes morning with the sun rising over Latrigg against a blue sky.

A marvellous slew of colours too from the flowers and rhodedendron. It’s a joy to be out and what better place for us to have an early breakfast than on the Belvedere deck, as this morning’s photo shows.

The temperatures has not been what we would hope for near midsummer’s day, but compared to what we are seeing every night on the TV of the storms and flooding in the south of England, the North West is the destination to be heading for this summer and the coming holidays!

And if you make it up to The Larches this year, just look at the view of the Skiddaw range (below) from the Buena Vista Crag. You’re tucked away there and unseen at the top of our fellside garden; and if you don’t feel like making it to the top of the fells, you can always from the comfort of the seat travel the footpaths with a pair of binoculars!
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